An Ode to the Dog in You. The US Consumer.

April 26, 2024

I recently saw a tweet by @AIsafetymemes, who kept asked ChatGPT to make a dog . . . and then make it happier, and happier . . . and happier . . . and thought, you know, this is basically the American consumer. So here goes:

YOU . . . you . . . are an absolute animal.

You beast.

YOU . . . you all-American, wake-up in the morning, face licking, leash pulling, front seat sitting, head-out-the-truck window, tongue wagging woof woof. White collar, blue collar, no-collar dog that’s unchained, untamed, and unleashed on the unsuspecting work world.

Out there running around breathlessly, chasing the next car, cat, or start-up project. Eating what you kill, peeing on what you see, and celebrating all your thrills. You Dawg.

What a beast . . . what a dragon slayer. What a worker.

Dats a gooood boy, girl, they/them, he/her, it/thing, runt/Rott, whatever you be. Goooood doggie.

You 5.9% Personal Income growing wage earning kick-assery!

That’s year-over-year mind you. That’s without government assistance too! Above that 3.2% inflation you kibble snorting Boo. Way to run faster than the doggy treadmill! All by yourself.

Sure . . . you’re not saving much, well hardly anything at all, but who has time to bury them bones?? You’re running full speed, chasing things that need to be chased!

Put it on the card. Lay it on the debt, don’t worry about the debt, yer dog’s good for it.

See dat’s a goooood dog. Not no delinquent dog. Not some flea-bitten, no cats-chasing lazy dogs

This dog hunts.

In packs no less.

There’s alot of you out there. So many of you hustling that it’s actually moving this country’s GDP.

3.9% as of the latest reading.

That’s shockingly high if we’re being frank. It explains why consumption continues to power higher. High wages fueling higher spend.

Why shouldn’t it though? Ya boy’s getting 5.9% higher wages YOY?!

Think about it this way.

2/3rds . . . 66% of US households own a home. Their biggest asset and also one of their biggest liabilities. Almost 90% of that 2/3rds . . . (i.e., nearly half of US households) have a mortgage rate below 6%.

More pointedly . . . this . . .

~60% at rates below 4%?? Said another way, your wages are increasing by 5.9% year-over-year and you’re paying a fixed 4% interest rate on your house. Doggies are flush! The American consumer is consuming because it can. For many, the largest personal expenditure (i.e., housing) has been locked down, in many cases at a lower rate than the inflating wages and personal income at large. Certainly over time, this will begin to decline as homes are sold, moves are made, and doggy houses traded, but you see the point right? This can and likely will go on for longer than you think. The US consumer drives 70% of this country’s economy, and if wages continue to climb (even at a shallower clip), the impact of the 2/3/4% mortgage rates will provide a tailwind for years to come.

So consumer strength? Expect it to continue, expect the dogs to keep running. Heck, they might even be flying soon as everyone seems to be traveling.

So you . . . you animal. That’s a good good dog.

Good job you.

You cosmic happy doggie. lol

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