The refinery bottleneck is the part I find most useful here. Looking only at headline crude inventories can hide where scarcity is actually being monetized. If crack spreads stay this extreme, either product demand eventually breaks or those margins attract more throughput and shift some of the economics back upstream. It’s a good reminder that in commodity chains the bottleneck and therefore the margin pool, can migrate much faster than the narrative.
good update. is there enough ammo to keep shooting , post-midterms? am already maxed in global defense sector.
what are the mid-long energy plays?
fun fact : salt domes erode each fill cycle. there have been ~30 cycles in american SPR meant for ~6 actual (non-political, non self-inflicted) emergencies.
amazing the # gop experts on the trump 'peace train' in 2025 had no concern then re: iran , and now swear to an existential threat. the world realizes no fixing this level of stupid endemic in the population, no matter who wins the next few elections.
The only thing I would say is that the prospect of Iran creating a nuke is perhaps the most terrifying thing I can imagine. unlike Kim Jong Un, who may be a Napoleon wannabe, but is isolated in an unimportant part of the world, but more importantly is not a religious fanatic, the Ayatollah's are, by definition, religious fanatics with a defined mission, the destruction of the great satans, Israel and the US. if you believe they wouldn't use those nukes the first day they were operational against Israel first, I would take the other side of that bet. remember, even if they know it means total annihilation, they are religious fanatics and mentally prepared for that, perhaps even welcoming it if they were successful in that goal.
The situation sucks, but it has sucked since 1979, and on today's 25th anniversary of 9/11, we are all reminded just what religious fanaticism can do.
The refinery bottleneck is the part I find most useful here. Looking only at headline crude inventories can hide where scarcity is actually being monetized. If crack spreads stay this extreme, either product demand eventually breaks or those margins attract more throughput and shift some of the economics back upstream. It’s a good reminder that in commodity chains the bottleneck and therefore the margin pool, can migrate much faster than the narrative.
good update. is there enough ammo to keep shooting , post-midterms? am already maxed in global defense sector.
what are the mid-long energy plays?
fun fact : salt domes erode each fill cycle. there have been ~30 cycles in american SPR meant for ~6 actual (non-political, non self-inflicted) emergencies.
amazing the # gop experts on the trump 'peace train' in 2025 had no concern then re: iran , and now swear to an existential threat. the world realizes no fixing this level of stupid endemic in the population, no matter who wins the next few elections.
MAGA keep gobbling that delish yellow cake!
The only thing I would say is that the prospect of Iran creating a nuke is perhaps the most terrifying thing I can imagine. unlike Kim Jong Un, who may be a Napoleon wannabe, but is isolated in an unimportant part of the world, but more importantly is not a religious fanatic, the Ayatollah's are, by definition, religious fanatics with a defined mission, the destruction of the great satans, Israel and the US. if you believe they wouldn't use those nukes the first day they were operational against Israel first, I would take the other side of that bet. remember, even if they know it means total annihilation, they are religious fanatics and mentally prepared for that, perhaps even welcoming it if they were successful in that goal.
The situation sucks, but it has sucked since 1979, and on today's 25th anniversary of 9/11, we are all reminded just what religious fanaticism can do.