Putin Things in Perspective

June 24, 2023

That’s CNN’s headline. Yeah, pretty much wiped the slate clean for the category “things that will be important in the near future.”

A few hours later this:

For us, the fast evolving coup (or not?) in Russia will dominate headlines in the coming weeks. Does Putin fall, will Prigozhin succeed as he marches on Moscow, does he continue his march? What will become of Russia in the coming weeks, what’re the implications for oil?

Those questions can’t be answered until we begin to clarify how the situation evolves. It’s time to “pull the threads,” and instead of us opining, we’ll just gather intel. Well also the experts in the field map out the plausible scenarios. We’ve included links to some of the sites we’re reading for the latest (we make no claim as to their veracity, where they stand politically, etc.). This is simply information gathering at this stage to map out plausible scenarios, and things to think through. No one will be precisely accurate, but we’ll at least start placing “dots” on our “dot plot".

Below are a few of the sites . . .

CNN thread on coup:

https://www.cnn.com/europe/live-news/russia-ukraine-war-news-06-24-23/index.html

CNBC:

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/06/23/russia-ukraine-live-updates.html

Bloomberg:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-06-24/prigozhin-turns-his-forces-back-from-moscow-avoids-showdown?srnd=premium#xj4y7vzkg

Tweet thread on coup:

https://twitter.com/khodorkovsky_en/status/1672518526744117248

Scenarios for coup:

https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1672520308790525953

Additional thoughts on coup and Twitter Spaces if you want the information in audio format:

https://twitter.com/MarioNawfal/status/1672581931739881473

Really good summary page with updating information flow:

Day 2

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/heat-turned-up-on-wagner-forces-as-prigozhins-coup-enters-day-two

Day 1

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/wagner-boss-declares-war-on-russian-defense-ministry

You can bet China’s watching in interest:

https://twitter.com/onlyyoontv/status/1672577370535124992

https://twitter.com/HuXijin_GT/status/1672624533193506820

As for oil implications? Completely uncertain right now. Does the coupe set-off a chain reaction of the Russian Federation splintering? If it does, then you’ll see provinces and regions fracture as each regional warlord/mini-dictator/criminal plunder assets and seize regional/local power. Will Moscow be able to rule and retain control (whoever’s in charge)? What happens with nuclear weapons? What happens to the Ukrainian war? Whoever wins, you’d have to say the odds are looking better for a Ukrainian victory after yesterday as Russia turns in-wards and siphons forces from the front.

Does a new “stable” regime could allow Western sanctions to be lifted, Ukrainian reconstruction to commence, and Russian economy to recover (increasing demand), and oil service firms return to restore Russian oil production (increasing supplies). An unstable one could lead to Russia fracturing (decreasing demand/supplies) and nuclear weapons proliferation (really terrible).

What if the “coup” is fake news, or some form of stagecraft? What if Putin is conspiring with Prigozhin, has brokered a deal with him, or is capitulating (yes unlikely)? What’re the implications?

There’s too many variables outstanding right now, and since the situation is entirely fluid, any analysis wouldn’t be particularly helpful. For now, geopolitical uncertainty likely creates risk off in the name of safety, but we’ll know more on Sunday when the markets open.

So just keep monitoring. We’ll do the same.

Feel free to suggest any other sites/news sources that have been helpful, and we can update this article as we go.

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