43M vaccine doses administered. That figure is stunning. It’s stunning because of the rapidity of it. We thought it could be high, but did we expect it? No. To be honest, the roll-out of the vaccines have been problematic, largely because of manufacturing constraints, logistical challenges and bureaucratic ineptitude. Still 43M. These are vaccinations mind you, they aren’t “vials delivered” which is another 20M more (62.9M) per the CDC. These are real vaccinations to the highest risk groups. What’s this mean? Well we believe we’ve already vaccinated about 20% of the target US population group and almost 40% of the highest risk group.
Let’s walk through the numbers.
Population of US? 330M.
Those over the age of 18? 255M (vaccines aren’t approved for children yet)
Not everyone will want a jab though. Per the Kaiser Family Foundation, 70% of those surveyed have said they’d be willing to receive a vaccine. Using that baseline we’re down to 179M folks, divide by the 33M people who’ve received at least 1 dose, we have about 18% of the target population group that have begun/been vaccinated. (We recognize that the Moderna/Pfizer vaccines require 2 doses, but we’re assuming those who received the first dose will opt for a second dose and that the second doses will be available).
Those Over 65
Like any quality infomercial, wait there’s more. By far the highest at risk group for COVID are those over 65. Total US population over 65? 54M. Let’s assume that the “willing to be vaccinated” percentage in that demographic is slightly higher, 80% (since they’re aware of their higher risks).
So we’ve got a total target population of about 43M people in that group. CDC data indicates that about half of those who’ve received 1 dose or more are over the age of 65. We only have age data for about 90% of these vaccinations, but we can probably extrapolate the remaining 10%.
So 43M over the age of 65 divided by 16M vaccinated with at least 1 dose = 38% of the highest risk group that have begun/been vaccinated. Fantastic.
We’re injecting about 1.3M shots per day of late, and continuing to focus on this group means at our current pace, the highest risk group should be fully vaccinated by the end of February (or at least those willing to be).
Said another way . . . Spring Break anyone?