Doubling Down on Iran and OXY
March 20, 2026
Things will settle down.
Just not today.
We’ve stepped into Iran’s hurt locker, and now enclosed, we’re still swinging away.
Doubling down because that’s what people with strength do right?
So the USS Boxer joins the USS Tripoli and its MEU in the Gulf. We won’t speculate what the MEUs will be used for (e.g., Kharg Island or the shoreline next to Strait of Hormuz), but just simply look at timing. It takes about 3 weeks for an MEU to sail from the West Coast to the Gulf. USS Tripoli will arrive before that (sometime next week), but even if it’s successful in gaining a tactical victory and taking a strategic foothold, would that compel the Iranian’s to lay down and accept a full ceasefire and peace accord? Doubtful, which means this excursion likely drags on for another 3-4 weeks.
We doubt it because by the end of next week . . . we’re bingo fuel.
What we mean by that is we’ll have effectively wiped out the entire “glut” built last year. Moreover, we’ll be dipping into commercial inventories, the draining of which will make oil gains go parabolic in the West.
Oman is at $170, Dubai at $150, Asia at $150, Europe is at $110, and the US? $98. Whew . . . only $98. Don’t exhale though because it’s coming. A slow zombie horde of undead prices. Here’s JP Morgan.
Next week, oil prices will creep higher as the shut-ins continue and supplies falter. Despite the tumult, the S&P 500 and QQQ are only down 4% year-to-date. This insouciance will allow the administration to keep wandering down its chosen path. Fair enough, but every day this continues, means another dollar added to the back of the curve when oil supplies resort themselves. We think even if the all clear sounded TODAY, we’re looking at $80/barrel oil when the fog-of-excursion lifts. If you need marines to land and force a capitulation in three weeks? Triple digits. Goldman agrees . . . higher for longer.
So what’re we doing about it? Well, let’s just take a quick look at Occidental Petroleum (“OXY”) and one of our holdings, and how we’re positioned for the above.