The point missing from this excellent piece is the real reason why we are over there fighting - to restore / defend the Petrodollar system and establish a counterweight to China's hold on rare earth supplies. The missile and uranium questions are much lower priorities. The big worry is whether we can continue to finance our enormous debt if we lose the demand for treasuries fostered by the Petrodollar trade
What will it take to save the petrodollar now? I don't see how it goes on if the US doesn't remove the regime and control Iran. If the US walks away without control do they lose their gulf alliances?
The only way it survives is if we have some arrangement where we control the flow through Hormuz, even if it ends u being some type of shared toll arrangement with the Iranians. This would need to be spun alobg the lines that the Iranians learned a lesson and they will play nice. Otherwise we are back at controlling via the Dimmer Switch for 99 years
why no role for total (0.5t?) barrels that never made it out? it seems durable demand destruction would at best only cover some of these, and is smaller than post-war reduced output.
restocking to prior levels seems to be in some year no one attempts to model.
Brilliantly written! The tail risk is how Iran will retaliate if the US resumes its strike!!!
The point missing from this excellent piece is the real reason why we are over there fighting - to restore / defend the Petrodollar system and establish a counterweight to China's hold on rare earth supplies. The missile and uranium questions are much lower priorities. The big worry is whether we can continue to finance our enormous debt if we lose the demand for treasuries fostered by the Petrodollar trade
What will it take to save the petrodollar now? I don't see how it goes on if the US doesn't remove the regime and control Iran. If the US walks away without control do they lose their gulf alliances?
The only way it survives is if we have some arrangement where we control the flow through Hormuz, even if it ends u being some type of shared toll arrangement with the Iranians. This would need to be spun alobg the lines that the Iranians learned a lesson and they will play nice. Otherwise we are back at controlling via the Dimmer Switch for 99 years
why no role for total (0.5t?) barrels that never made it out? it seems durable demand destruction would at best only cover some of these, and is smaller than post-war reduced output.
restocking to prior levels seems to be in some year no one attempts to model.