Agree, since one of Bessent's 3/3/3 pillar is 3% GDP growth, they eventually have to get back to growth, which means toning down the trade rhetoric, so it's a foot race, or more likely who can suffer the political pain for longer before negotiating.
roughly speaking, these notions get us back to the pre-election economy (cancel tariffs, retain existing tax cuts, cyclical stimulus even if not needed).
however even with the above, the end result of all the uncertainty will be far less reshoring and friendshoring with china as the clear winner. this is also the only shot at curbing inflation, partially allowing reduction in price levels of eggs, cars, houses, etc....
until then, i look for ever more dominance by logistic brokers that can manage monthly flops on tariffs, weekly flops on exceptions, as well as all other regulatory piling-on by escalation. kind of ironic, given all of trump's 'brand' on less administrative overhead in all things.
the market could easily over-correct to the upside if :
- trump ended tariffs and declared victory
- actually get more biz tax cuts passed
- beg for rate easing or other stimulus
and i am confident that trump will as soon as there is 'enough' in it for him & cronies.
outside of societal damage and cultural signaling, the regulations rollback and MAGA budget cuts have been insignificant to excite animal spirits.
Agree, since one of Bessent's 3/3/3 pillar is 3% GDP growth, they eventually have to get back to growth, which means toning down the trade rhetoric, so it's a foot race, or more likely who can suffer the political pain for longer before negotiating.
roughly speaking, these notions get us back to the pre-election economy (cancel tariffs, retain existing tax cuts, cyclical stimulus even if not needed).
however even with the above, the end result of all the uncertainty will be far less reshoring and friendshoring with china as the clear winner. this is also the only shot at curbing inflation, partially allowing reduction in price levels of eggs, cars, houses, etc....
until then, i look for ever more dominance by logistic brokers that can manage monthly flops on tariffs, weekly flops on exceptions, as well as all other regulatory piling-on by escalation. kind of ironic, given all of trump's 'brand' on less administrative overhead in all things.
Well argued. the end is not nigh