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Joel Kopel's avatar

What if Saudi Arabia is already at peak production? Ditto for the UAE. Why would one say that? Look at historical production, irrespective of peak production. All of OPEC pushed out extra production from storage and opened their valves just prior to OPEC meetings when production quotas were assigned.

Also note the Saudi's oil inventories are running at about 2 decade lows.

Also, remember the age of Saudi oil fields. Many are 50-60 years old which is well past the prime age of 40 years. Two years ago, the Saudi's disclosed that Ghawar production was down nearly 2 million bpd from peak. That was 2 years ago. Depletion never sleeps.

The world is nearly out of spare capacity.

The parabolic oil move is right around the corner. The parabolic move will start in 2022.

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Joel Kopel's avatar

What if Iranian barrels were already on the market. Some were sold to Iraq for distribution and the others shipped on boats with transponders turned off.

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RySci's avatar

Iran’s floating storage is real but a lot of it is condensate. Big question marks on how much they’ll be able to raise production and how quickly.

The tide will be out of OPECs spare capacity by this summer so you’ll have your answer soon enough.

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Ian Yoong's avatar

Excellent insights.

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