My only comment is that a potential flaw in your thesis is there has been far more demand destruction than you anticipate, and that is likely why the price isn't going up like we all would have anticipated given the closure of Hormuz.
My observation over many years in markets is narrative follows price, but that is not happening right now, rather the narrative is pushing really hard to say things are much worse than the price action indicates. I have no idea why that is the case, big players caught long at higher levels trying to get out? Iran pushing a psyop to negatively impact Trump and the US? something else? but it sure is odd that there are so many explaining that we will run out of oil and products soon, and keep pushing the date out while the flow is still there.
I freely admit I have no special insight into how this plays out, but I just have a feeling that on July 4th Trump announces a deal, as the timing will be just too good to miss!
Yes, there's likely some demand destruction in Asia, regional flights as well as even lack of available plastic bags at grocery stores (anecdotal) means there's bound to be some cutbacks there. Yet, the high consuming countries have kept pace. so on balance, it's really maybe immaterial in the scheme of things.
Where is the evidence of this demand destruction you mention? This has been discussed ad nauseam in the chat but I'm unsure if you've seen those discussions. So if you have links to proof of high demand destruction I'd love to see them. Otherwise what you are considering demand destruction may be more of a mirage from inventory draws and the internal massive Chinese SPR release.
thinking about export restrictions from US?
Well guess there's another (fake?) peace deal announcement. The 10th one in the past 10 weeks
My only comment is that a potential flaw in your thesis is there has been far more demand destruction than you anticipate, and that is likely why the price isn't going up like we all would have anticipated given the closure of Hormuz.
My observation over many years in markets is narrative follows price, but that is not happening right now, rather the narrative is pushing really hard to say things are much worse than the price action indicates. I have no idea why that is the case, big players caught long at higher levels trying to get out? Iran pushing a psyop to negatively impact Trump and the US? something else? but it sure is odd that there are so many explaining that we will run out of oil and products soon, and keep pushing the date out while the flow is still there.
I freely admit I have no special insight into how this plays out, but I just have a feeling that on July 4th Trump announces a deal, as the timing will be just too good to miss!
Yes, there's likely some demand destruction in Asia, regional flights as well as even lack of available plastic bags at grocery stores (anecdotal) means there's bound to be some cutbacks there. Yet, the high consuming countries have kept pace. so on balance, it's really maybe immaterial in the scheme of things.
Where is the evidence of this demand destruction you mention? This has been discussed ad nauseam in the chat but I'm unsure if you've seen those discussions. So if you have links to proof of high demand destruction I'd love to see them. Otherwise what you are considering demand destruction may be more of a mirage from inventory draws and the internal massive Chinese SPR release.