Loved the analogies, but found the chart more helpful. The dynamics of supply/demand are tough precisely to tie down. The percentage changes that determine win/lose are often so small that prediction is almost impossible. Unexpected things come up (to use the analogy) that run you down. There are so many high powered players involved in this game. As HFIR recently noted, on the supply issue-- the dynamics are not singular. The Saudi's cut and the Russians continue to build. This creates a lot of confusion in the supply picture. I'm still betting (and it is a bet) that oil will at least get back into the 80-90 range.
Loved the analogies, but found the chart more helpful. The dynamics of supply/demand are tough precisely to tie down. The percentage changes that determine win/lose are often so small that prediction is almost impossible. Unexpected things come up (to use the analogy) that run you down. There are so many high powered players involved in this game. As HFIR recently noted, on the supply issue-- the dynamics are not singular. The Saudi's cut and the Russians continue to build. This creates a lot of confusion in the supply picture. I'm still betting (and it is a bet) that oil will at least get back into the 80-90 range.