Appreciate the narrative here, very helpful in sizing up the situation.
Some reflections, if only for myself:
-General market PA of the last few days seems again to confirm the market is driven primarily by AI sentiment. I take it as strong positive signal that a lot of names with oil exposure - especially offshore drillers - barely moved on Friday despite the jolt of panic that hit the market.
-I agree that as we speed toward midterms, it seems hard to imagine a change of circumstance in short order that would alter the reversal that has developed in the last ~2-3 weeks and the general trend since the summer.
-I think we get constructive price action in a lot of these names going into early november and perhaps beyond; it seems like time is on the side of oil longs here.
Agree here, what we're grappling with is how does the back-end of that curve move once things settle. Do we suddenly sing hallelujah, and oil crashes so that it never prices in the lost production/barrels, or does the lack of inventory keep oil high. You'd think the opposite of the price reaction to the 2014-2016 and 2020-2021 glut lingers (i.e., prices have to stay higher to incentivize restocking). We'll see...
I think your comment would be better without all the Trump bashing. The implication from your comments seems to be that you are alright with Iran having a nuclear weapon, the prevention of which was the motivation for Trump's/Israel's actions.
Why would my analysis that the administration entered a war haphazardly and based on faulty analysis that's since led to this debacle, imply that I'd be alright with the IR regime having a nuclear weapon? We can probably agree there were more effective means to achieve it than bombing the country. The nuclear issue was a plausible reason to attack, but we can probably agree on balance it wasn't the main reason. Coming off of the success in VZ, the conclusion was this would be a cakewalk, and now we're prosecuting a war where there's no clear victory. Regardless of politics, we need to get back calling a spade a spade. In fairness though, I'm not entirely sure once you hand any President this situation (i.e., this current quagmire today), if anyone has a clear solution where we can walk away with a victory, or a SoH that's free and clear of Iranian influence (i.e., closer to the pre-war). At this stage, military tech has advanced to the point where the defender holds a pretty strong hand. We'll see. Appreciate your comments, and I mean that sincerely because I probably could've toned down the rhetoric.
I'm glad to see the last last part of your reply. I see so much energy devoted to stuff that doesn't impact a thesis (globally, not picking on you). When I see it I'm so surprised that people have time for it. Thinking through a thesis is hard enough without the baggage. Anyway, Kind Regards,
Completely agree. It's hard to separate the two, and maybe we shouldn't. In the end I think it's probably more about self-awareness. We can likely all agree that there's a bit of an issue in our current political leadership, but when we run through the implications it's critical to be aware of our own biases. Thought Nelson's critique above was sensible.
Any impartial bystander would conclude that the conduct and results to date of Trump's Iran war is a spectacular failure......there's simply no avoiding this conclusion, and the implications for a protracted conflict and oil prices for the next decade.
Aside from the Trump administration's misunderstanding of Iran as another Venezuela..........Trump and Hegseth are blithely unaware that the Iranians have been prepping for this showdown since the mid 1980s on the heels of our political/military support for Saddam Hussein's 8 years war against Iran which killed 400,000+ Iranian troops/civilians, the downing of the Iranian passenger jetliner by the USS Vincennes with loss of all lives aboard, etc.
There is always another POV.
I don't intend this post to be political..........but a full understanding of the highly complex US-Iran relationship requires an assessment of the US CIA's 1953 Operation Ajax that toppled a democratic/secular government to install the autocratic Shah Pahlavi, whose SAVAK brutalized his people, in order to secure a source of reliable flow of oil to the US. The 1979 revolution was "liberation day" for the Iranian people, but produced the current theocratic regime. The Iranian people have suffered tremendously through both US and the cleric's ideology/policies.
Nemo, you know your history, and I also don't doubt the IRGC knows it as well. It's a game of survival after getting their leadership decapitated, but my impression is the remaining guys are looking at this like they've got "so many outs" before that last river card turns up in this global poker game they're willing to play it through. Especially since they've been sitting with a short-stack of chips all these decades. Really tough to bluff someone like that.
The Iranians have nothing to lose......and they do have a "nuke" card to play.....unrestrained barrage of drones/missiles at critical infrastructure in the region.
Appreciate the narrative here, very helpful in sizing up the situation.
Some reflections, if only for myself:
-General market PA of the last few days seems again to confirm the market is driven primarily by AI sentiment. I take it as strong positive signal that a lot of names with oil exposure - especially offshore drillers - barely moved on Friday despite the jolt of panic that hit the market.
-I agree that as we speed toward midterms, it seems hard to imagine a change of circumstance in short order that would alter the reversal that has developed in the last ~2-3 weeks and the general trend since the summer.
-I think we get constructive price action in a lot of these names going into early november and perhaps beyond; it seems like time is on the side of oil longs here.
Agree here, what we're grappling with is how does the back-end of that curve move once things settle. Do we suddenly sing hallelujah, and oil crashes so that it never prices in the lost production/barrels, or does the lack of inventory keep oil high. You'd think the opposite of the price reaction to the 2014-2016 and 2020-2021 glut lingers (i.e., prices have to stay higher to incentivize restocking). We'll see...
I think your comment would be better without all the Trump bashing. The implication from your comments seems to be that you are alright with Iran having a nuclear weapon, the prevention of which was the motivation for Trump's/Israel's actions.
Why would my analysis that the administration entered a war haphazardly and based on faulty analysis that's since led to this debacle, imply that I'd be alright with the IR regime having a nuclear weapon? We can probably agree there were more effective means to achieve it than bombing the country. The nuclear issue was a plausible reason to attack, but we can probably agree on balance it wasn't the main reason. Coming off of the success in VZ, the conclusion was this would be a cakewalk, and now we're prosecuting a war where there's no clear victory. Regardless of politics, we need to get back calling a spade a spade. In fairness though, I'm not entirely sure once you hand any President this situation (i.e., this current quagmire today), if anyone has a clear solution where we can walk away with a victory, or a SoH that's free and clear of Iranian influence (i.e., closer to the pre-war). At this stage, military tech has advanced to the point where the defender holds a pretty strong hand. We'll see. Appreciate your comments, and I mean that sincerely because I probably could've toned down the rhetoric.
I'm glad to see the last last part of your reply. I see so much energy devoted to stuff that doesn't impact a thesis (globally, not picking on you). When I see it I'm so surprised that people have time for it. Thinking through a thesis is hard enough without the baggage. Anyway, Kind Regards,
Completely agree. It's hard to separate the two, and maybe we shouldn't. In the end I think it's probably more about self-awareness. We can likely all agree that there's a bit of an issue in our current political leadership, but when we run through the implications it's critical to be aware of our own biases. Thought Nelson's critique above was sensible.
Any impartial bystander would conclude that the conduct and results to date of Trump's Iran war is a spectacular failure......there's simply no avoiding this conclusion, and the implications for a protracted conflict and oil prices for the next decade.
Aside from the Trump administration's misunderstanding of Iran as another Venezuela..........Trump and Hegseth are blithely unaware that the Iranians have been prepping for this showdown since the mid 1980s on the heels of our political/military support for Saddam Hussein's 8 years war against Iran which killed 400,000+ Iranian troops/civilians, the downing of the Iranian passenger jetliner by the USS Vincennes with loss of all lives aboard, etc.
There is always another POV.
I don't intend this post to be political..........but a full understanding of the highly complex US-Iran relationship requires an assessment of the US CIA's 1953 Operation Ajax that toppled a democratic/secular government to install the autocratic Shah Pahlavi, whose SAVAK brutalized his people, in order to secure a source of reliable flow of oil to the US. The 1979 revolution was "liberation day" for the Iranian people, but produced the current theocratic regime. The Iranian people have suffered tremendously through both US and the cleric's ideology/policies.
Nemo, you know your history, and I also don't doubt the IRGC knows it as well. It's a game of survival after getting their leadership decapitated, but my impression is the remaining guys are looking at this like they've got "so many outs" before that last river card turns up in this global poker game they're willing to play it through. Especially since they've been sitting with a short-stack of chips all these decades. Really tough to bluff someone like that.
A cornered bear is exceedingly dangerous.
The Iranians have nothing to lose......and they do have a "nuke" card to play.....unrestrained barrage of drones/missiles at critical infrastructure in the region.
We/ROW have everything to lose.