If you are correct, and animal spirits are taking off again, please explain again why inflation will decline and the Fed will cut rates. While there has been a cohort who continue to claim that shelter inflation is about to fall, there has been no evidence of that yet, and until shelter starts to fall, it is very difficult for inflation to fall overall. it is hard to look at an economy that continues to defy expectations and performs reasonably well and conclude the Fed is going to cut rates 150bps this year. just doesn't make sense
Best macro analysis I've seen in a while
If you are correct, and animal spirits are taking off again, please explain again why inflation will decline and the Fed will cut rates. While there has been a cohort who continue to claim that shelter inflation is about to fall, there has been no evidence of that yet, and until shelter starts to fall, it is very difficult for inflation to fall overall. it is hard to look at an economy that continues to defy expectations and performs reasonably well and conclude the Fed is going to cut rates 150bps this year. just doesn't make sense