Thanks for the charts and thoughts! I have a slightly different take on the government and healthcare hiring as a percentage of the total. Seems that outside of a recession (or coming out of one) you would not expect to see the inflection higher that is being seen now. Points towards the growing impact of demographics and fiscal dominance imo.
Hi RySci, yeah we also ran that number and since the data only goes back to the 1990s, it's not entirely clear that it inflects higher before a recession (logically I'd agree, you'd expect to see the % of gov't (or even gov't+healthcare) job additions to total job additions to be skewed higher if gov't is the last employer to do the heavy lifting, but the charts don't bear that out. Can't seem to post those charts in this chat box, but will try and post somewhere.
Thanks for the charts and thoughts! I have a slightly different take on the government and healthcare hiring as a percentage of the total. Seems that outside of a recession (or coming out of one) you would not expect to see the inflection higher that is being seen now. Points towards the growing impact of demographics and fiscal dominance imo.
Hi RySci, yeah we also ran that number and since the data only goes back to the 1990s, it's not entirely clear that it inflects higher before a recession (logically I'd agree, you'd expect to see the % of gov't (or even gov't+healthcare) job additions to total job additions to be skewed higher if gov't is the last employer to do the heavy lifting, but the charts don't bear that out. Can't seem to post those charts in this chat box, but will try and post somewhere.
Interesting. Appreciate the follow up 🙏